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真实周期理论中的工作搜寻(文献回顾)

In the revolutionary paper by Kydland and Prescott in 1982, the idea of studying business cycle using dynamic general equilibrium models set the agenda for the future research in macroeconomics. The distinct feature of these models, labeled as “real business cycles” (RBC) models, is that we can calibrate models with parameters drawn from other empirical studies and use these calibrated models to generate artificial data which can then be compared with actual data.

The simulation results of these RBC models have been highly consistent with the empirical regularities of both business cycle and long-run economic growth in all markets other than the labor market until the early stage of the 1990s. The stylized facts in the labor market which have been failed to be explained by the traditional RBC models include:

a) Labor productivity is more volatile than real wage and it leads employment over the business cycle.

b) The negative correlation between vacancies and unemployment (Beveridge Curve).

c) Employment is more volatile than real wage.

d) Labor share of total income behaves counter-cyclically.

e) Both employment and unemployment are highly persistent.

f) The coexistence of unit root or near unit root in real output and output growth is positively correlated over short horizons and negatively correlated over long horizons.

During the same period, labor searching and matching framework was developed to build the micro-foundation for the Keynesianism unemployment theory (Blanchard & Diamond, 1989; Blanchard & Diamond, 1990; D. Mortensen & Pissarides, 1992; Phelps, 1970; Pissarides, 1987). This labor searching and matching framework has successfully generated a consistent equilibrium dynamic theory of job vacancies, unemployment and wage formation, however, the dynamic interaction between the labor market and other markets was largely neglected.

Although many early attempts have been made to combine the labor market search theory with the real business cycle, Wright (1986) and Howitt (1988) have tried to shown how labor market search considerations may help resolve those stylized facts listed above. Andolfatto(1996) and Merz(1995) were the first to explore both the theoretic and empirical explanations regarding the quantitative implications of search environments in dynamic general equilibrium RBC models . The main contribution of AD and MZ’s papers, which were accomplished in an independent line, is to incorporate the labor market search in the RBC models and successfully explain those stylized facts listed above. Meanwhile, they sever to set the general framework for studying labor market behaviors in the RBC models. Hence, a brief review of the labor market and real business cycle by comparing AD and MZ’s papers is the theme of the remainder of this review sector.

Sector 2 reviews the model building; the calibration of models is presented in sector 3; the simulation results will be discussed in sector 4; structural disturbance analysis is the main topic in sector 5; sector 6 concludes this review with a comment.


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