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薛兆丰不懂货币的精髓

  薛兆丰的经济评论我是比较喜欢看的,文字比较合我的口味,够辣。但这一篇““不升值”与“一篮子”是自相矛盾”显然是薛兆丰没有看懂张五常的相关文章,特别是这篇文章中这一段:

   “与一篮子物品挂钩”与“与物价水平挂钩”相比并无优势。理由有三点:(1)期货物品只有寥寥几类,没有代表性,只盯着那些物品更容易误导货币政策。(2)央行根据物价水平来调节货币流通量的困难,在于难以掌握“注入或抽回货币”与“物价水平因此发生变化”两者之间的“滞后程度”。若不了解这 “滞后程度”,那么不论说要钩紧一篮子物品还是物价水平就都只是空谈,因为这恰恰就是央行最主要的目标和难题。这好比人家问怎么养好小孩,你回答说关键是要把孩子养好一样。(3)选取“可以在市场上成交的实物”为一篮子物品,无助于央行解决这个困难。特别强调“可以在市场上成交”这个特性是莫名其妙的,因为央行的目标是维持货币量稳定,不是维持那几种物品的价格,不是要成为那几种物品的期货炒家,不是要成为向全球以固定价格提供那些物品的供销社。

  从这一段看,薛兆丰显然还是不懂货币的精髓。只要谈什么一揽子物品“没有代表性”,就说明他尚不了解货币的精髓:货币是交换的媒介。只要这媒介币值稳定、便于交易,被民众普遍接受,就可以作为货币,而与它是否具有代表性没有关系。试想一想,以前的黄金、白银等货币,是否具有代表性?他们能代表什么?只代表它自己。但是它稳定、易于保存、便于交易、被人们普遍接受,就作为几千年的货币了。为什么黄金白银之类的贵金属后来退出货币的舞台,是因为它的数量相对于现贷社会的商品越来越少,因此,它与其他物品的相对价格就变得越来越贵,也就是,同样的物品换的黄金白银越来越少,即以它标价的其他物品的价格变得越来越小,那是通货紧缩的意思了。与通货膨胀一样,通货紧缩同样是币值不稳定的表现,违背作为货币的基本要求,所以,金银不得不退出货币行列。

  以物价指数为锚,不是不可以,关键的难点是这个锚不好钩,因为它比较复杂。不如用张五常提议的那个简单的一篮子物品,最好是有期货交易的物品组合。不需要考虑什么代表性,只要能够有利于稳定币值就可以了。从稳定币值的角度看,显然张教授的一篮子物品要比物价指数好钩得多。

  原文网址:http://space.efnchina.com/user1/834/10386.html

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