内容提要：本文试图重新评价对外贸易对我国经济增长的贡献。文章认为，传统的会计恒等式估计方法由于没有区分进口与出口在经济运行过程中所发挥的不同作用因而倾向于低估外贸对经济增长的影响作用。针对传统方法的这一缺陷，文章提出了改进的方法并利用回归分析来重新估计对外贸易的贡献程度。按此方法的估计结果表明，九十年代以来外贸出口增长10%，基本上能够推动GDP增长1%。
关键词：经济增长、增长核算、对外贸易、出口
Title: A re-examination of international trade''s contribution to China''s economic growth
Abstract: Many studies, based on an accounting equation of gross domestic product, found that the contribution of international trade to China''s economic growth in the past 20 years was minimal and in the year of 2000 was negative. In this paper, we re-examine the issue and found that those studies under estimate trade''s contribution to GDP growth due to their neglect of export''s indirect impact on domestic consumption and investment. We suggest a new estimation method and find that a ten percent increase in export will result in a one percent increase in GDP, if both the direct and indirect contributions are considered.
Key words: Economic growth, International trade, Export, Growth Accounting
改革开放以来，我国的对外贸易取得了飞速的发展。对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系也因此成为理论界关心的热点问题。对该问题的讨论大致包括如下两个方面：第一，对出口与经济增长之间因果关系的讨论。这种讨论致力于区分是出口增长推动了经济的增长还是经济规模的增长带动了出口的增长。第二，对外贸与经济增长之间关系的实际测算。这种研究一般承认出口的增长推动了经济的增长，并在此基础上利用各种方法测算对外贸易的发展对经济增长的贡献程度。本文的讨论属于后者。文章认为，传统的对外贸与经济增长关系的测算方法存在一定缺陷。由于该缺陷的存在，该测算方法倾向于低估对外贸易对经济增长的促进作用。为了弥补这种缺陷，文章将对测算方法的改进提出自己的建议。
