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中国的影响力

Autor, D. H., D. Dorn, et al. (2011), "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," working paper.

 

 

Abstract: U.S. imports from low-income countries have increased dramatically since 1990, with most of this growth stemming from rising imports of Chinese goods. We explore the effect of import competition on U.S. local labor markets that were differentially exposed to the rise of
China trade between 1990 through 2007 due to differences in their initial patterns of industry
specialization. The focus on local labor markets rather than industries as the unit of analysis allows us to analyze a broad set of economic impacts, both within the manufacturing sector and, critically, in the surrounding labor market. Instrumenting Chinese imports to the U.S.using contemporaneous, industry-level Chinese import growth in other high-income countries, we find that increased exposure of local labor markets to Chinese imports leads to higher unemployment, lower labor force participation, and reduced wages. The employment reduction is concentrated in manufacturing, and explains one third of the aggregate decline in U.S. manufacturing employment between 1990 and 2007. Wage declines occur in the broader local labor market, however, and are most pronounced outside of manufacturing.

Growing import exposure spurs a substantial increase in transfer payments to individuals and households in the form of unemployment insurance bene…ts, disability benefits, income support payments, and in-kind medical benefits. These transfer payments are two orders of magnitude larger than the corresponding rise in Trade Adjustment Assistance benefits. Nevertheless, transfers fall far short of offsetting the large decline in average household incomes found in local labor markets that are most heavily exposed to China trade. Our estimates imply that the losses in economic efficiency from trade-induced increases in the usage of public benefits are, in the medium run, of the same order of magnitude as U.S. consumer gains from trade with China.

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