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巴曙松、杨现领:房地产大转型的“互联网+”路径(英文版)

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编者语:

本文节选自巴曙松教授和高级分析师杨现领博士所著《房地产大转型的“互联网+”路径》一书的英文版《“Internet Plus” Pathways to the Transformation of China’s Property Sector》的序言,该书由YUE Feng(岳峰)、YU Junying(余俊英)、 ZHU Hanxiong(朱汉雄)翻译,已于2016年9月由Springer出版发行。该书破解国际知名房地产电商企业生存与发展之道,权威分析移动互联网时代的房地产行业大转型,为中国“互联网+房地产”企业寻找下一个风口。本文系该书英文版与中文版序言,敬请阅读。

 

文/巴曙松;英文版译者/岳峰、余俊英、朱汉雄

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The Forthcoming “Golden Age” Of the Internet and the Existing Home Market

Here I am now in Hong Kong, looking out of my window at a forest of high-rises.

While looking at this city with a mature real estate market and contemplating the development of China’s property sector, I wonder what changes are burgeoning as various sectors of the Chinese economy are using “Internet plus” strategy to explore new frontiers.

China’s property market is undergoing a dramatic shake-up. A fundamental change is that a market dominated by new homes is giving way to a market of existing homes. In this age of mobile Internet, China’s industrial transformation, which used to feature standardized products, is now characterized by non-standardized services. Mobile Internet is germinating changes in the property sector, although a drastic transformation has not yet started. 

Under these circumstances, a shake-up in the property market is duly expected, with the old order receding and the new order being established. This book is my effort to visualize the future in China’s property market. The views expressed in it are my own and do not represent those of any organization.

I. Crossover Fusion of the Internet and Property Sector

The advent of this new age is marked by these three events: 

First, a market dominated by new homes is giving way to a market of existing homes, which is the fundamental change. 

Second, China’s mobile internet users have outnumbered PC users. This means the Internet’s influence over the traditional industries is no longer about standardized products, but non-standardized service. The internet, now providing all sorts of services in real life situations, is no longer simply a virtual world, but part of the real world. Mobile internet is germinating changes in the real estate brokerage industry, although a drastic transformation is yet to be expected.

Third, the new rules of the real estate brokerage industry are established. The boundaries between different business models are blurring. Real estate developers and traditional brokerages are becoming more and more internet-based, internet companies are engaging in brokerage, and media companies are transforming into e-commerce businesses. The formerly different businesses that used to operate within their own territories are now competing severely on the same battlefield.  

II. What Does a Booming Market of Existing Homes Mean to Us? 

Existing homes are already a dominant presence in the markets of the US, the UK, France and Australia, where the numbers of existing home sales are respectively 9 times, 8.1 times, 1.9 times and 3.5 times those of new home sales. While this ratio is only 0.6 in Japan at large, existing home sales are much more active in Japan’s Capital Region and Kinki Region than the rest of the country, the numbers of which are 3 times and 1.9 times those of new home sales respectively.

In 2013, although the ratio of existing home and new home sales is only 35% in China at large, the former already surpassed the latter in all first-tier cities and a few second-tier cities. According to the statistics of Centaline Home,first tier cities account for 16 % of the total transacted area of existing homes and 39% of the transaction volume. 

Although existing homes have not yet dominated the housing market in most Chinese cities, due to a large enough existing housing stock, relatively high homeownership rate and the increasing population mobility, the boom of the existing home market is but inevitable.

What, then, does a booming market of existing homes mean to us? 

1. Balance Between Supply and Demand

As real estate development process consists of many complicated steps like land acquisition, design and construction, the cycle of development can be as long as three years or longer. As a result, in a new home market, the supply of homes does not synchronize with demand. When demand elasticity is much greater than supply elasticity, developers at the supply end of the industrial chain has the final say in the market, with consumers and real estate agents at the disadvantaged end. The result is elevated home prices and reduced commissions.

However, in a market dominated by existing homes, supply and demand are both decentralized, with no individual or organization monopolizing the supply. Supply elasticity and demand elasticity are more balanced and synchronized. If not impacted by a macroeconomic cycle or financial business cycle, home prices will not experience any momentous rise or fall. The fluctuation in home prices will be smaller and more constant. Therefore consumers need to be constantly attentive to the ever changing market. In the existing home market, home buyers are mostly owner-occupiers rather than investors, and naturally they will be more concerned about the location, transportation and neighborhood of the property. Houses to them are not just concrete structures — they are homes to live in. That explains the highly complicated and intensive information cluster each housing transaction is. Furthermore, people may opt to rent a home as an alternative to buying one. The demand for information will be even greater given the shorter cycle of house rental and higher frequency of information exchange. 

2. The Emergence of Large Matchmaking Platforms

The prerequisite for a trading platform is balanced and decentralized buyers and sellers. As real estate sector is becoming a buying market, developers’ clout is on the decrease as consumer power rises. This will pave the way for trading platforms and e-commerce businesses in the new home market. What’s more, in the existing home market where buyers and sellers are more decentralized than in the new home market, even larger trading platforms will emerge. 

There was no trading platform in its true sense in China’s new home market before 2014. The prevalent business model then was media e-commerce businesses, which were in essence media companies offering advertising services. Internet companies were merely developers’ platforms for advertisement. 

However, in 2014, with the hesitant housing market, the long-drawn sales cycle and home-buying process and the limited effect of advertisement in traditional media, traditional brokerages found it difficult to expand its customer base. Trading platforms for both new homes and existing homes then heaved into sight. Furthermore, the group-buy deposits these platforms charge guarantee immediate commission payment, which used to be a headache for traditional brokerages, and these platforms thus thrived. 

However, no real trading platform is in sight in the existing home market. Media companies offer advertising channels or platforms for real estate agents or brokerages to disseminate their information, but they are not involved in or have much control over transactions. On the other hand, although traditional brokerages participate in transactions, they have not evolved from brokerages to platforms. Given the complexity of the existing home market and the indispensability of agents, trading platforms are bound to switch from solely match-making platforms to platforms with their own brokerage operations, and then the other way round. In the next two or three years, there will emerge one or several huge regional trading platforms for existing homes, which provide information, match buyers and sellers and provide extended services centering around transactions.  

Finally, there will be competition between trading platforms for new homes and those for existing homes, because from a consumer’s point of view, new homes and existing homes are not much different, but it remains to be seen which will get the upper hand. 

Ba Shusong 

June 2015 at Hong Kong 

附:《房地产大转型的“互联网+”路径》中文版原书序言——迎接互联网与存量房的“黄金时代”

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窗外的香港,高楼林立。 

身处房地产行业高度发达的香港,回望中国整个房地产市场的发展,在“互联网+”成为不同产业转型发展的重要突破方向之一时,房地产行业将出现哪些显著的趋势性变化? 

从现状看,中国的房地产市场正在发生激烈的变化与重组。根据一系列数据分析,新房市场主导的阶段迈入二手房市场趋势性上升的存量房时代,这是一个基础性变化。从互联网角度看,移动时代的来临意味着互联网对传统行业的改造从标准化商品过渡到非标准化服务,移动互联网对房地产服务的改造则刚刚开始,真正的裂变尚未出现。在这两个趋势的叠加下,我们预计会看到房地产市场游戏规则的重建,表现为旧秩序的逐步退场和新秩序的曙光初现。那么,我们将面临一个什么样的未来?这是我们试图在本书中探讨的主题。当然,本书中的所有观点仅仅代表作者个人作为一个研究人员的看法,不代表任何机构的意见和看法。

一、互联网改变房地产的时代已经来临 

这个全新时代的来临是基于三个标志性事件:

其一,中国由新房市场主导的阶段迈入二手房市场趋势性上升的存量房时代,这是一个基础性变化。

其二,中国移动互联网用户超过PC用户,移动互联时代的来临意味着互联网对传统行业的改造从标准化商品过渡到非标准化服务,互联网从虚拟世界进入现实世界,开始提供线下真实生活场景中的各种服务。在这个大趋势之下,移动互联网对房地产服务的改造则刚刚开始,真正的裂变尚未出现。

其三,行业规则的重建。2014年以来,我们已经看到不同商业模型之间的界限开始变得模糊,泾渭分明的鸿沟不复存在,房地产开发企业开始向互联网转型,传统经纪公司也越来越互联网化,互联网公司越来越经纪公司化,媒体公司越来越电商化,彼此之间相互渗透,原本定位不同、差异明显的玩家突然出现在同一个战壕中,竞争更加激烈。

二、存量房时代的来临意味着什么?

从国际对比来看,美国、英国、法国、澳大利亚已经是二手房主导的市场,这四个国家二手房成交分别是新房成交的9倍、8.1倍、1.9倍、3.5倍。尽管日本二手房只有新房的0.6倍,但首都圈和近畿圈的二手房市场活跃度远远高出全国水平,分别达3倍和1.9倍。 

再看中国,2013年,尽管全国层面二手房与新房成交占比只有35%左右,但是一线城市和个别二线城市二手房已经超过新房。从二手房市场集中度来看,据测算,2013年中国二手房成交面积的16%集中在一线城市,成交金额的39%集中在一线城市。 

尽管目前大部分城市二手房成交尚未处于主导,但是考虑到已经足够庞大的商品房存量、较高的城镇家庭住房自有率,以及人口流动趋势的加速,二手房市场的全面爆发是大势所趋。

那么,存量房时代的来临意味着什么呢? 

1、市场供需双方的力量更加均衡

在新房主导市场供给的阶段,由于拿地、设计、施工等诸多环节涉及的周期较长,往往需要3年甚至更久,因此,新房供给往往滞后于需求的变化,无法与需求同步调整,导致需求弹性远远大于供给弹性,导致供给端的开发商在产业链上拥有绝对的话语权。一个自然结果是消费者和代理商处于弱势,前者表现为房价上涨,后者表现为代理费率下降。 

然而,在二手房主导市场供给的阶段,供给与需求都十分分散,没有谁可以垄断供应,因此,供给弹性与需求弹性将更为一致。在这种情况下,如果不出现大的宏观周期和金融周期的冲击,房价就很难出现趋势性上涨或下跌,房价的调整将更加频繁,更加短期,但波幅更小且双向波动。也正是基于此,消费者更需要关注频繁变化的市场信息。此外,存量房时代的住房需求多以自住为主,且集中在老旧中心城区,基于自住的需求必然会更加关注房屋地理信息、通勤信息和邻里信息,这时房子是一个家,不是钢筋水泥,不是投资品,所以房屋交易的信息密集性和复杂属性才会由此产生。而且,自住并不一定直接购买,租房和买房之间的替代性在这个阶段也才会产生。考虑到租房周期更短,信息交互的次数更多,对信息需求进一步上升。 

2、大型交易撮合平台的诞生是必然结果 

交易平台的诞生必须具备的前提条件就是交易双方力量相对均衡且足够分散。随着新房市场逐步过渡到买方市场,开发商的力量趋弱,消费者力量趋强,这为新房交易平台的产生提供了条件,这也是许多新房电商平台崛起的大背景。在存量房市场,基于买卖双方更加分散的特点,则会出现更大的交易平台。

第一,在新房市场,2014年之前,并未出现真正意义上的交易平台,当时,媒体电商是普遍形式,其核心属性是媒体,货币化模式是广告,互联网公司不过是开发商的广告平台。

然而,在2014年,由于市场相对低迷,去化周期和购房周期延长,传统的代理公司无法有效拓客,传统的媒体广告效果也十分有限,自然来客越来越少。在这种市场情况下,才催生了一、二手联动的渠道整合平台,同时由于团购费的机制创新解决了传统代理无法解决的快速结佣问题,这些平台迅速增长。 

第二,在二手房市场,目前同样没有出现真正的交易平台,PC时代的媒体公司为二手房公司或经纪人提供端口服务,但仍未真正切入交易,或者说对交易的掌控力远远不够。传统中介公司虽然参与交易,但是仍然没有完成从公司向平台的转换。考虑到二手房市场的复杂性和经纪人不可或缺这一特点,大致判断平台的崛起必然是一个从轻到重,再从重到轻的双重演变过程。可以预计,未来2~3年一定会出现一个或几个大型的区域性二手房交易平台,它不仅提供信息、撮合交易,而且还会提供以交易为中心的延伸服务等。

最后,简单推测,未来几年的市场中将会有一场新房交易平台与二手房交易平台的竞争,因为站在消费者角度看,房子是没有新旧之分的,至于未来到底是新房平台打败二手房平台,还是二手房平台打败新房平台,需要进一步观察。

巴曙松     

2015年6月于香港

(完)

(本文为巴曙松教授于2015年6月为《房地产大转型的“互联网+”路径》一书所作序言,该书英文版《"Internet Plus" Pathways to the Transformation of China's Property Sector》已于2016年9月由Springer出版发行,中文版已于2015年7月由厦门大学出版社出版发行。本文观点仅代表作者作为一位研究人员个人的看法,不代表任何机构的意见和看法)

( 本篇编辑:郭倩)   

《房地产大转型的“互联网+”路径》一书的英文版《"Internet Plus" Pathways to the Transformation of China's Property Sector》,已于2016年9月由Springer出版发行,购书请点击以下链接:

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亚马逊:https://www.amazon.cn/Pathways-to-the-Transformation-of-China-s-Property-Sector-Ba-Shusong/dp/9811016984/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1474221600&sr=8-1&keywords=“Internet+Plus”+Pathways+to+the+Transformation+of+China’s+Property+Sector

《房地产大转型的“互联网+”路径》:2015年7月由厦门大学出版社出版发行。购书请点击以下链接:

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当当网:http://search.dangdang.com/?key=%A1%B6%B7%BF%B5%D8%B2%FA%B4%F3%D7%AA%D0%CD%B5%C4%A1%B0%BB%A5%C1%AA%CD%F8%2B%A1%B1%C2%B7%BE%B6%A1%B7&act=input

亚马逊:https://www.amazon.cn/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?__mk_zh_CN=%E4%BA%9A%E9%A9%AC%E9%80%8A%E7%BD%91%E7%AB%99&url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=%E3%80%8A%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E4%BA%A7%E5%A4%A7%E8%BD%AC%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E2%80%9C%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%2B%E2%80%9D%E8%B7%AF%E5%BE%84%E3%80%8B

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