清华大学中国金融研究中心讨论会（seminar）之四
题 目：China: Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations
主讲人：汪涛（Tao Wang）教授
国际货币基金组织
时 间：2004年5月27日（星期四）上午10:00
地 点：清华大学经管学院伟伦楼北508
清华大学中国金融研究中心
http://www.ccfr.org.cn
汪涛教授简介
About the speaker
国际货币基金组织亚洲与太平洋部中国处高级经济学家，曾负责国际货币基金组织菲律宾, 也门，罗马尼亚，香港，中国等国家和地区的工作。曾任麦吉•希尔集团数据源有限公司(著名宏观经济预测咨询公司)亚洲首席经济学家。中国人民大学经济学学士(1988),纽约大学文理学院经济学博士1994)。工作和研究的领域包括经济增长，货币政策，银行与金融系统，国际收支，财政，国有企业改革和社会保障系统等宏观经济领域的各方面。
Tao Wang, International Monetary Fund, Currently a desk economist for China, previously worked on Hong Kong, Romania, Yemen, and the Philippines. She had been a Chief Asian Economist in DRI/McGraw-Hill.
Ph.D. in Economics, New York University (1994), B.A. in Economics, People’s University of China(1988).
Working and researching fields: economic and financial developments, monetary policy, banking sector, financial system, balance of payments, finance, reform of State-owned Enterprise(SOE), social security, and other macroeconomic aspects.
讨论会（seminar）简介
本次讨论会，汪涛教授将讨论其论文China: Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations，论文摘要见下文，面向对象为金融专业博士生和研究人员。
论文摘要
Abstract
This paper reviews the evolution of China’s real effective exchange rate between 1980 and 2002, and uses a structural vector autoregression model to study the relative importance of different types of macroeconomic shocks for fluctuations in the real exchange rate. The structural decomposition shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the variations in real exchange rate changes during the estimation period. The paper also finds that supply shocks are as important as nominal shocks in accounting for real exchange rate fluctuations, in contrast with other studies that show that, in industrial countries, nominal shocks are more important in explaining real exchange rate fluctuations.
