【本期主题】Counter-Cyclical Substitution Between Trade Credit and Bank Credit
This paper explores the substitution relationship between trade credit and bank credit, and its counter-cyclic dynamic pattern through economic cycles. We propose a new theoretical model, using a mechanism design method, which predicts the substitution between the two credits and its counter-cyclic behavior, subject to the condition of technology efficiency not less than one. This model also helps explain the somewhat contradictory evidence in the literature, on the relationship between the two credits. We present empirical evidence on the substitution effect and its counter-cyclic behavior, by using a balanced panel data set of 284 listed Chinese companies for the period 1998-2006. We further find that the substitution behaves counter-cyclically with respect to the coincident macroeconomic indicator, namely, GDP. We also add some new elements to the empirical literature, by treating endogeneity carefully and incorporating the lagging-effect of trade credit coherently.
【报告人】石晓军 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院副教授
【时 间】11月10日 中午12:00
【地 点】明德主楼734室
诚邀您参加。如果您有兴趣，请于11月10日前回复邮件hanqing.seminar@gmail.com或电话联系，我们将为老师准备工作餐。联系人李红梅：62514479
报告人简介：
石晓军，北京航空航天大学经济管理学院副教授。主要研究兴趣集中在信用管理、商业银行信用风险管理、公司金融、风险的行为理论与方法、可计算一般经济均衡。已主持国家自然科学基金两项；主持国家社科基金一项；曾获教育部科技进步奖二等奖。他的论文出现在European Journal of Operational Research; Expert Systems with Applications; Applied Mathematics--A Journal of Chinese Universities; Journal of Systems Science & Complexity等国际重要期刊和《经济研究》、《管理科学学报》、《经济学季刊》、《管理世界》、《金融研究》、《系统工程理论与实践》、《中国管理科学》、《数量经济技术经济研究》、《中国软科学》等重要刊物上；已出版《征信体系的巴西模式与国际实证比较》、《商业银行信用风险管理研究》、《信用治理：文化、流程与工具》、《信用政策与市场策略》著作4部。
汉青经济与金融高级研究院
二零一零年十一月五日
