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【11月10日】上海:Once an Enemy, Forever an Enem

题 目:  Once an Enemy, Forever an Enemy? The Long-run Impact of Japanese Invasion of China on Trade and Investment

演讲人:  陶志刚 教授,香港大学

主持人:  何振宇  博士

时  间:   2011年11月10日(周四)下午3:30-5:00

地  点:   北楼105

 

演讲内容简介:

The Japanese invasion of China from 1937 to 1945 is an important part of the Pacific Front of the Second World War, and much longer than the Second World War (1939-1945). It is also a very cruel war with heavy civilian and military casualties (i.e., 21.7 million). Even sixty-six years after the Invasion, there has been great antagonism among the Chinese people toward Japanese as shown in traditional and modern media like movies and internet forums.

In this paper, we investigate whether there is a long-run impact of Japanese invasion of

China on contemporary trade between China and Japan and foreign direct investment from Japan. To measure the severity of the Japanese invasion, we collect the percentage of civilian and military causalities for 28 regions in China. For the estimation of impact on trade between China and Japan, we apply an augmented Gravity model developed by Helpman et al (2008) to the 2001 China Custom data. It is found that the invasion leads to not only fewer numbers of firms participating in the trade between Japan and China’s regions (the extensive margin effect) but also lower trade volume (the intensive margin effect). For the estimation of impact on foreign direct investment from Japan, we apply the discrete choice model development by McFadden (1974) to the 2001 foreign invested enterprises data. It is found that regions that had severe losses from the Japanese invasion attract fewer numbers of foreign direct investments from Japan. Our study shows that historical animosity still matters for international trade and investment despite the trend toward a flat world.

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