题目：货币政策中区制转移的非对称期望效应
演讲人：Zheng Liu，Emory University
时间：2008年6月5日(周四)15:30-17:00
地点：上海交通大学北楼108
演讲人简介：Zheng Liu is Associate Professor of Economics at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia. From July 2008, he will join the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco as Research Advisor. In the past few years, he has frequently visited the Federal Reserve Banks of Minneapolis and Atlanta and the European Central Bank as a Visiting Scholar. He obtained the Ph.D. degree of Economics at the University of Minnesota in 1997. He is a macroeconomist with research interests in business cycles, monetary policy, and open-economy macroeconomics. In the past 8 years, he has published a dozen articles in refereed economics journals, including top journals such as the American Economic Review and the Journal of Monetary Economics. He is currently Associate Editor of economics, the Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal.
演讲内容梗概：This study answers two substantive questions. Is the magnitude of the expectation effect of regime switching in monetary policy the same across policy regimes? Is the expectation effect quantitatively important? Using two canonical DSGE models, we show that there exists asymmetry in the expectation effect across regimes. The expectation effect under the dovish policy regime is quantitatively more important than that under the hawkish regime. These results suggest that the possibility of regime shifts in monetary policy can have important effects on rational agents’ expectation formation and on equilibrium dynamics. They offer a theoretical explanation of the empirical possibility that a policy shift from the dovish regime to the hawkish regime may not be the main source of substantial reductions in the volatilities of inflation and output.
