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经济学家的“原罪”

我自己都得承认,这是一个哗众取宠的标题。我真正要说的是那些经济学者或者那些选择经济学专业的学生其实都与众不同,而且是“天生”的与众不同!

Ah sa曾在学习交流版发了个帖子:“问题讨论(4):是我本来自私,还是经济学令我自私?”(http://162.105.169.201/forum/article.asp?id=32238),讲述了Marwell和Ames所做的一个实验(Marwell, Gerald, and Ruth E. Ames 1981. "Economists Free Ride, Does Anyone Else?: Experiments on the Provision of Public Goods IV." Journal of Public Economics 15:295-310. ),实验表明,经济学专业的研究生明显要比其他专业的学生更会搭便车(free-riding),对此,他们提出了两个假说:1、Selection Hypotheses,那些更注重self-interests的人选择了经济学;2、Learning Hypotheses,通过对经济学的学习,人们会改变自己的行为。

Carter和Irons后来做了一个改进型的实验(Are Economists Different, and If So, Why?, by John Carter and Michael Irons, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 1991, Vol. 5. No. 2, pp. 171-177),来验证上述的两个假说。

实验是这样的,他们把实验者分成经济学专业的新生(只学过2个月的宏观,未学过微观)、非经济学专业的新生、经济学者和非经济学专业的学者四类。实验是两个一组进行的,其中一个称为proposer,另一个称为responder,组织者给proposer 10块钱,由他向responder提出一个两个人之间的分割方案(必须是0.5的倍数,并且总和为10),如果responder接受proposer提出的分配方案,那么每个人就得到相应的钱;如果responder拒绝,那么两个人都一分不得。

显然,你不用博弈论就可以想出,如果两个人都是理性并且是自利(rational / self-interest),responder会接受任何大于0的数额,所以,理论上的均衡点是proposer提出自己得9.5元,responder 得0.5元,然后responder接受这个分配方案。

实验结果当然是偏离了这个均衡点。可我在这里要说的是,如果实验者分成经济学专业(包括经济学新生和经济学专家)和非经济学专业两类的话,前者的成绩更接近理论上的预测值,进一步的统计检验表明,经济学专业的新生比其他专业的新生的成绩更接近理论值。Carter和Irons得出结论,selection hypotheses成立,那些更self-interest的人选择了经济学。

所以,经济学者就是与众不同,这倒不是因为他们学了经济学,而是他们在成为经济学者之前就与众不同,更精于自我利益的计算(好还是坏?)。

DNKM的推论:在选择经济学的人群中,喜欢Adam Smith的人应该比喜欢Karl Max的人多。(未经实验证明!)

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附:Ah sa的帖子

问题讨论(4):是我本来自私,还是经济学令我自私?


作者:Ah sa  发表时间:2001年6月25日 09:07

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Consider this experiment(实验):

Four persons are brought to 4 separated(隔离) rooms.
Each person is given $5.

He can either take the money home or donate(捐献) some money into a box.
The money put in the box by the four persons will be multiplied(乘) by 2 and then shared(平分) by the four persons.
(Note: they don't know how much other people put into the box)

For example, if all of the four persons donate their $5, they can each bring $10 home.
(This is the Pareto optimal allocation)

However, if all of them keep their money and donate $0, they can only bring $5 home.(This is the equilibrium predicted by economic theory because one is strictly better off by putting $0 into the box)

Marwell & Ames(1981) carried out the above experiment and found out 2 interesting results:
(1) On average, people donate 40-60% of their money into the box.
(2) Economic students, on average, put only 20% of their money into the box.

Suppose the result is reliable(可靠的), the question is: why economic students are more "selfish"("自私")?
There are two possible reasons:
(i)"Selfish" student tend to choose economics.
(ii) Economics teaches student to be "selfish".

Fellows, what do you think?

Do you think you are a "natural-born" maximizer, or a "learned" maximizer?

 


http://162.105.169.201/forum/article.asp?id=32238
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